Live pipeline
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Pricing today
Ford Motor Credit
91
$2.0B · HY · 5Y
NIC est. +42 bps · Book 2.1×
Cellnex Telecom
67
€750M · IG · 8Y
NIC est. +18 bps · Book 3.8×
Aviva plc T2
58
£500M · Sub · 10NC5
NIC est. +12 bps · Book 5.2×
Citgo Petroleum
23
$1.5B · HY · 7Y
Flagged: covenant risk
Pricing this week
Softbank Group
84
$3.5B · HY · 5Y / 10Y
Thames Water
31
£600M · IG · 12Y
ArcelorMittal
72
€1.0B · IG · 7Y
Ford Motor Credit · 5Y · $2.0B
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Ford Motor Credit Co.
AI NIC estimate
+42 bps
vs 12mo avg +28 bps
IPT vs secondary
T+415
Secondary at T+373
Expected tightening
−20–25
To approx T+390
AI · Screening agent
NIC of +42 bps is well above the 12-month sector median for B-rated autos (+28 bps), driven by soft order momentum at launch. Book quality is mixed — 60% real-money, 40% fast-money — suggesting a moderate post-pricing pop. Recommend flip strategy with a $15M order (est. $4–6M allocation). No covenant issues identified.
Book intelligence
Oversubscription2.1× in progress
Real-money share~60%
Est. allocation rate28–35%
BofA (lead) · Citi · GS · JPM
Agent workflow
Screened vs portfolio constraints
NIC model run against 5Y comp universe
Covenant review completed — no flags
Monitoring live book updates from syndicate desk…
Awaiting PM approval to submit IOI
Auto-execute hedge on allocation confirmation
AI agent
History
Good morning. 4 deals are pricing today. Ford Motor Credit is your highest-conviction opportunity — NIC est. +42 bps, well above HY auto median. I've filtered out Citgo on covenant grounds.
What's our allocation history with the Ford bookrunners? And is the NIC generous enough to justify a flip vs hold?
Over 18 months, your allocation rate from BofA on HY deals averaged 31%. On a $15M order, expect $4.5–5M. A D+1 flip targets ~$190K gross P&L. Hold for 30 days adds ~$85K carry but introduces spread widening risk. Flip is the higher Sharpe outcome at current book dynamics.
OK — submit the Ford IOI at $15M. Set up the CDX hedge on allocation confirmation. Alert me if book crosses 3×.
IOI submitted to BofA, Citi at $15M. CDX HY Series 43 hedge queued — triggers automatically on allocation. Book monitor set: alert at 3× coverage.